114. The following appeared in a memorandum1 from the director of research and development at Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm.
The package of benefits and incentives2 that Ready-to-Ware offers to professional staff is too cosplaytly3. Our quarterly profits have declined since the package was introduced two years ago, at the time of our incorporation4. Moreover, the package had little positive effect, as we have had only marginal success in recruiting and training high-quality professional staff. To become more profitable again, Ready-to-Ware should, therefore, offer the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago and use the savings5 to fund our current research and development initiatives.
一家软件工程公司，Ready-to-Ware的研发经理的备忘录：
RW给专业职员的利益和勉励机制太昂贵了。自从两年前大家组成公司机会制引入，大家的价值降低了1/4，而且，这个机制基本上效果不好，由于大家在招募和练习高水平专业职员方面只获得边际（marginal？）成功。为了第三得到更多的价值，RW应该提供两年前用的较低的勉励机制，并把节余用于研发的拓展。
1. The causal relationship between the benefit package given to the professional staff and the decline of the profit is not guaranteed by the coincidence that the latter occured just after the latter. Other factors that may contribute to the decline in the profit should also be considered and ruled out.
2. Research and development is a time-consuming process. Two years is not a long enough period to see the result and positive effects.
3. Even if the package is really too high and caused the declne of profit, it is still imprudent to say that the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago will definitely work.
1. 同时发生并不是因果，忽视他因
2. 没提供信息，不了解假如不提供这类是否会得到成功培训
3. 即便是省下钱，也不知是不是科研，由于可能由于其他缘由致使的价值降低。
In this memorandum the director of research and development of Ready-to-Ware recommends reducing the benefits package offered to employees as a means of increasing profits and funding current research and development initiatives. The directors line of reasoning is that quarterly profits have declined because of the current benefits package and can be increased by reducing it. Moreover, the director argues that the benefits package had little effect in recruiting and training high-quality employees. The directors argument is questionable6 for several reasons.
To begin with, the directors reasoning is a classic instance of after this, therefore because of this reasoning. The only evidence put forward to support the claim that the introduction of the benefits package is responsible for the decline in quarterly profits is that the profits declined after the package was introduced. However, this evidence is insufficient7 to establish the causal claim in question. Many other factors could bring about the same result. For example, the company may have failed to keep pace with competitors in introducing new products or may have failed to satisfy its customers by providing adequate support services. Until these and other possible factors are ruled out, it is premature8 to conclude that the introduction of the benefits package was the cause of the decline in profits.
Next, the director assumes that the benefits package currently offered is responsible for the marginal success Ready-to-Ware has experienced in recruiting and training new high-quality professionals. However, no evidence is offered to support this allegation. Other reasons for Ready-to-Wares failure to attract high-quality professionals are not considered. For example, perhaps Ready-to-Ware is not a cutting edge company or is not regarded as a leader in its field. Until these and other possible explanations of the companys marginal success at recruiting and training employees are examined and eliminated it is folly9 to conclude that the benefits package provided to the professional staff is responsible.
In conclusion, the director has failed to provide convincing reasons for reducing the benefits package Ready-to-Ware currently offers its professional staff. To further support the recommendation the director would have to examine and eliminate other possible reasons for the decline in Ready-to-Wares quarterly profits and for its lack of success in attracting high-quality professionals.