112. The following appeared in a memo1 to the Saluda town council from the towns business manager.
Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who dont exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saludas municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cosplayt of our group health insurance coverage2 by approximately 50% and thereby3 achieve a balanced town budget.
Saluda镇的商业管理者给镇议会的备忘录：
研究显示有规律地训练的生活病的概率比不运动的人要小一半。通过给Saluda的市政雇员提供一个设施好的体育馆，大家应该可以大约降低50％的健康保险支出并得到平衡的镇预算。
1. There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2. Therefore, the reduction of the cosplayt of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3. Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cosplayt, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly4.
In this memo Saludas business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the towns budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who dont exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cosplayt of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings5 on insurance would balance the towns budget. The managers argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious6 assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saludas employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable7 since the mere8 fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saludas employees do not exercise regularly. once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Saudas employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cosplayt of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cosplayt of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cosplayt of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate9 the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the managers plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business managers proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saludas budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.